March 2001

Numbers That Suck (And Some That Don’t)

There has always been scepticism about Chinese statistics. A country which relies on a Soviet-style reporting methodology for most of its economic data invites political interference and manipulation into the reporting process. In recent years, however, there has been concern among independent economists that China’s growth data are becoming less reliable, not more so. Sectoral statistics do not appear to tally with the official story of an economy growing at 7% to 8% a year. The arguments are complex – and beyond definitive resolution – but Tom Rawski pulls together the available evidence across everything from energy consumption to clothing sales. His conclusion is that overall growth has indeed been heavily overreported.

Also in this issue:

• Caijing: news that’s fit to print

• Software: China tries the India thing

• State enterprises: delusions for a new millennium

• Monkey King: David Mahon