March 1999
E-China: Why The Chinese Internet Is Unstoppable
Over the last two decades, China has shown a huge love for everything electronic. By 1997, it had more than one colour television for every urban household. Cable TV has rolled out at a phenomenal rate, to reach more than 56 million households now. In telecoms, although the overall penetration rate remains low, the annual roll-out of fixed lines and mobile phones is extraordinary. Over the last few years, about 10 million new local subscribers have been added every year, while in 1998, some 11 million people became mobile phone users. The same is true for computers. With sales of PCs forecast at seven million to ten million over the next two years for 1999, China will be the world’s third biggest computer market.
By all estimates, the same will be true for the Internet. From a handful of users in mid-1995, China officially had more than 2.1 million people on-line at the end of 1998. Unofficial estimates were much higher, and the total is set to grow exponentially over the next few years. But how does this make sense? Aren’t China’s rulers obsessed with controlling information? Can they be expected to make an exception for the Internet? Will the Internet in China develop with the same unfettered characteristics experienced in North America and Europe, or will it be forced into developing Chinese socialist characteristics?
CEQ looks at these questions by suggesting that China’s acceptance - and the Chinese leadership’s acceptance - of the Internet is not only not surprising, but downright predictable. On-line information networks in general, and the Internet in particular, make sense for China’s sustained economic, political and social development. The only real surprise is that many foreigners seem to be having more trouble discovering this than the old Chinese technocrats who run the country.
Also in this issue:
China’s stock markets: Q4 1998 and early Q1 1999 in review
China’s A-bomb: An A-share crisis would makes ITICS a fond memory
Show us the money: China business Italian-style